“Annualized Dec AI revenue: $110 billion. The combined annualized revenue of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI (i.e. December revenue * 12) was $30.5 billion in December 2025; my median for December 2026 is $110 billion (20th percentile $60 billion, 80th percentile $300 billion).”
Said Jan 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026Planned Obsolescence, 'AI predictions for 2026', 14 January 2026
Cotra notes she badly underestimated 2025 AI revenue growth (predicting ~$17B against an actual ~$30.5B).