“Finally filled out my forecasts [for the AI Digest/Sage 'AI 2025' survey]... TL;DR I think everything saturates except FrontierMath, which merely dectuples.”

Scoring her own forecasts in January 2026, Cotra wrote that she 'overestimated progress on pretty much every benchmark other than FrontierMath Tiers 1-3' — the benchmarks did not saturate as predicted, while FrontierMath jumped far faster than she expected (from ~2% to ~24% within a week of her forecast, with o3).