“My median estimate for transformative AI — operationalized as AI being able to automate 99% of currently fully remote jobs — is about 13 years away, i.e. roughly 2036.”
Senior Research Analyst, Open Philanthropy; author of the 'Forecasting TAI with biological anchors' report
Said Nov 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2036LessWrong, 'AI Timelines' dialogue with Oliver Habryka, Daniel Kokotajlo and Ege Erdil, November 2023
Target year 2036 is still far off; Cotra has since shortened her timelines substantially (by 2025 she reported roughly 25% by 2028 and 50% by 2031).