“A median of ~2040 [for transformative AI] (a decrease of ~10 years from 2050). This implies that each year in the 4 year period from 2036 to 2040 has an average of almost 4% probability of TAI.”
Said Aug 2, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2040Two-year update on my personal AI timelines, AI Alignment Forum / LessWrong, 2 August 2022
Deadline is end-2040.