“~35% probability [of transformative AI] by 2036 (a ~3x likelihood ratio vs 15%). This implies that each year in the 6 year period from 2030 to 2036 has an average of over 3% probability of TAI occurring in that particular year.”
Said Aug 2, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2036Two-year update on my personal AI timelines, AI Alignment Forum / LessWrong, 2 August 2022
Deadline is end-2036.