“The bio-anchors model implies a 50% chance of transformative AI by 2052 (model median ~2052; my all-things-considered personal median is ~2050).”
Said Sep 18, 2020Deadline Dec 31, 2052Draft report on AI timelines, AI Alignment Forum / LessWrong, 18 September 2020
Deadline is 2052; Cotra revised her personal median to ~2040 in August 2022.