“The bio-anchors model finds an almost 80% chance (about 78%) that transformative AI is developed by 2100.”
Said Sep 18, 2020Deadline Dec 31, 2100Draft report on AI timelines, AI Alignment Forum / LessWrong, 18 September 2020 (figures summarized in Astral Codex Ten, 'Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work')
Long-horizon forecast; deadline is 2100.