“Forecasting TAI with biological anchors: the model finds a ~10% chance that transformative AI is developed by 2031.”
Said Sep 18, 2020Deadline Dec 31, 2031Draft report on AI timelines, AI Alignment Forum / LessWrong, 18 September 2020
Deadline is end-2031; Cotra herself shortened these timelines in her August 2022 update (~15% by 2030).