“Existing evidence is very uncertain but suggests that this positive feedback loop might be strong enough to overcome diminishing returns and compute bottlenecks, leading to a rapid intelligence explosion. If this happens, then within six months of full AI R&D automation we could see more algorithmic progress than has occurred since the development of the Transformer nearly a decade ago. I believe this would result in superintelligent AI systems.”

Conditional on full automation of AI R&D, which has not occurred; the six-month clock starts only once that condition is met.