“Based on the recent trajectory of capabilities and the continued difficulty of alignment, I now believe there is a meaningful risk that rapid acceleration in AI capabilities leads to catastrophic and irreversible loss of control in the very near term. If I had to quantify my uncertainty I would estimate an all-things-considered risk of 4% over the next year and 15% over the next three years.”

Three-year window runs to September 2029; Christiano stressed these are subjective beliefs rather than model outputs.