“Probability that most humans die within 10 years of building powerful AI (powerful enough to make human labor obsolete): 20% — 11% because of an AI takeover, and 9% for non-takeover reasons (e.g. more destructive war or terrorism).”

Deadline is conditional (10 years after 'powerful AI' capable of making human labor obsolete), which has not yet been built, so the forecast is not yet resolvable.