“I'd put 4% on an AI built before the IMO solving the single hardest problem at the 2022, 2023, 2024 or 2025 IMO; maybe 8% on 'gets gold' instead (under the time controls etc. of the IMO Grand Challenge).”

In July 2025 both Google DeepMind (Gemini Deep Think, 35/42) and OpenAI reported gold-medal-level performance at the IMO under human-like time controls, so the outcome Christiano put at ~8% occurred. However, the hardest problem (P6) was not solved, consistent with his separate <4% forecast, which is why commentators called the resolution not fully clear-cut.