AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“There will be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles. (Similarly, we'll see an 8 year doubling before a 2 year doubling, etc.)”

AI alignment researcher, OpenAI

Christiano's canonical operationalization of 'slow takeoff'; neither a 4-year nor a 1-year doubling of world output has occurred, so the ordering condition remains unresolved.