“Back in early 2016 I bet at even odds that self-driving ride sharing would be available in 10 US cities by July 2023. Then I made similar bets a dozen times because everyone disagreed with me. [In April 2016 I gave a 60% probability to 10 cities; the first deployment to potentially meet our bar was Phoenix in 2022.]”

Christiano publicly conceded in July 2023 that he lost the bets: only Phoenix (2022) and arguably San Francisco offered anything close to public driverless ride-hailing by the deadline, far short of 10 US cities.