AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“I have little doubt the next few quarters will set still higher and higher net investment/GDP marks, possibly even eclipsing that aftermath of the 2000 tech stock peak. [S&P 500 net capital investment — capex less depreciation — stood at about 2.07% of nominal GDP as of June 30, 2026, a level exceeded only once in nearly four decades.]”

Founder of Scion Asset Management; author of the Cassandra Unchained Substack

Resolves against quarterly S&P 500 net investment (capex less depreciation) as a share of nominal GDP through mid-2027.