AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“Let's all take a moment to understand how self-serving it is for OpenAI, Anthropic and other execs of big hyperscalers to talk of slowing things down. 1. LLMs are not AI and won't be AGI. There is nothing AI to slow down. 2. Competition is coming up fast, slowing benefits incumbents.”

Founder of Scion Asset Management; author of the Cassandra Unchained Substack

Open-ended claim with no deadline; resolves only if and when an LLM-based system is generally accepted as AGI (or the paradigm is definitively superseded).