AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“When the write-offs come, perhaps in 2028 or 2029, these commitments discussed in Part IV may be so large that a relatively small write-off has a bigger impact than we can now imagine. After all, the growth rate of these off-balance sheet commitments and exposures is eye-watering.”

Founder of Scion Asset Management; author of the Cassandra Unchained Substack

Resolves on whether Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft and Oracle take material impairments or write-offs on AI infrastructure commitments in 2028 or 2029.