“Prediction: 2024 will feel like a breakthrough year in terms of AI capability, safety, and general positivity about its potential impact. In the longer term, it'll look like just one more year on an exponential that can make everyone's lives better than anyone's today.”

Greg BrockmanCEO

Co-founder and President, OpenAI

Capability did advance sharply in 2024 (o1/o3 reasoning models, Sora, Claude 3.5), but the safety and 'general positivity' halves went the other way: OpenAI dissolved its Superalignment team in May 2024 amid senior safety departures, and public/enterprise sentiment turned more skeptical. A public forecasting market on this exact prediction resolved NO.