“Much like the 2000 episode, we expect this year to unfold in two stages: a 'Great Rotation' from tech stocks to non-tech names in the first half of 2026, followed by a broad-based selloff in stocks in the second half on the back of a weakening US economy.”

Resolves at the end of 2026. An early-2026 rotation out of tech did occur but CNBC reported in April 2026 that it appeared to have already reversed as growth stocks regained favor; the H2 2026 broad-based selloff remains untested.