“My current estimate places a 95% confidence interval for the time horizon of superhuman intelligence at 5 to 20 years.”
Turing Award laureate; Professor, Université de Montréal; Scientific Director, Mila
Said Jun 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2043Yoshua Bengio, 'FAQ on Catastrophic AI Risks' (yoshuabengio.org), June 2023
The 95% interval runs to roughly 2043; the early end of the window (2028) will be the first informal checkpoint.