“Gemini 3 shows that scaling laws for pretraining are intact. This is the most important AI datapoint since the release of o1. This means that Blackwell models are likely to show a significant increase in performance when they come out in the second quarter of 2026. GPT-5 was not evidence of a slowdown in scaling laws.”

Blackwell-trained frontier models in fact shipped earlier than Q2 2026 — OpenAI's GPT-5.3 Codex (February 2026) was trained and served entirely on GB200 NVL72, and xAI's Grok 4.5/4.6 were built on GB200/GB300 — but whether they represent the 'significant increase in performance' Baker predicted is a judgment call that needs a benchmark-based resolution.