AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“The AGI race has begun. We are building machines that can think and reason. By 2025/26, these machines will outpace college graduates.”

Former OpenAI Superalignment researcher; author of 'Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead'

Said Jun 4, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2026Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead (Introduction), June 2024

Deadline runs to the end of 2026. Frontier models beat college graduates on many benchmarks and exams, but whether they 'outpace' graduates as workers is contested and not yet judgeable.