“As companies generate profound productivity gains from artificial intelligence, we estimate that software spend per year could grow at a 42% compound annual rate from just under $1 trillion today to $14 trillion in 2030; propelled by AI software, total IT spend could increase 20% at an annual rate and surpass $20 trillion, four times the ~$5 trillion consensus estimate.”

Resolves at the end of 2030; ARK has since trimmed the figure to roughly $13 trillion of 2030 software spend in later research.