“Informed by Wright's Law, we estimate that AI-relative compute unit (RCU) production costs could decline at a 39% annual rate and that software improvements could contribute an additional 37% in cost declines during the next eight years. In other words, the convergence of hardware and software could drive down AI training costs by 60% at an annual rate by 2030.”

Target year 2030 is still in the future; ARK later revised this same forecast upward to 70% annually (Big Ideas 2023) and 75% annually (Big Ideas 2024).