AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

CapabilitiesIncorrect
“AI training costs have dropped roughly 10x every year. In 2017 the cost to train an image recognition network like ResNet-50 on a public cloud was ~$1,000; in 2019 the cost dropped to ~$10. At the current rate of improvement, the cost should fall to $1 by the end of this year [2020].”

Asset manager; analyst research note 'AI Training Costs Are Improving at 50x the Speed of Moore's Law'

Said May 7, 2020Deadline Dec 31, 2020ARK Invest analyst research, 2020

The Stanford AI Index 2021, using DAWNBench data, put the cost of training an ImageNet image-recognition system to 93% accuracy at about $7.43 in 2020 (down ~150x from ~$1,100 in 2017), and the 2022 AI Index put it at $4.60 in 2021 — the ~10x-per-year pace stalled and the $1 threshold was not reached by end-2020.