“I have a strong view—99%, 95%—that all this will happen in 10 years. I think that's just a super safe bet. And then I have a hunch—this is more like a 50/50 thing—that it's going to be more like one to two, maybe more like one to three. [On reaching a 'country of geniuses in a data center.']”
CEO of Anthropic
Said Feb 13, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2036Dwarkesh Podcast, 'Dario Amodei — We are near the end of the exponential', February 13, 2026
Amodei separately put the ten-year probability at ~90% elsewhere in the same conversation; the trackable commitments are near-certainty of a 'country of geniuses in a data center' by 2036 and a 50/50 hunch that it arrives within one to three years of February 2026.