“Define the superhuman gap as the time between AI that can do 90% of knowledge work jobs, and AI that is obviously smarter than the top human geniuses in 90% of fields (it doesn't have to be the same AI). I think there's a 25% chance the superhuman gap range will be less than 1 year, a 50% chance it will last less than 4 years, and a 75% chance it will last less than 10 years.”

A relative-interval forecast with no calendar deadline: the clock starts only once AI can do 90% of knowledge work jobs (Alexander's AGI definition, which he gives a 50% chance by 2034).