“Given the current amount that corporations are pursuing safety, I think there's a 20% chance that the first AIs to cross the point of no return will want to eliminate the human population. [The point of no return is the point where, if an AI wanted to eliminate humanity, humans would no longer have a plausible chance of stopping it.]”

Narrowed from a two-part entry to the unconditional-on-counterfactuals 20% estimate; in the same post Alexander's modal scenario places the point of no return in the late 2030s / early 2040s.