“Define the diffusion gap as the time between the AI that could do 90% of knowledge work jobs, and the time when AI does do even half of knowledge work jobs. I think there's a 25% chance the diffusion gap is less than 3 years, and a 50% chance it's less than 10 years.”

A relative-interval forecast with no calendar deadline; Alexander notes his 75% figure is omitted because it falls past the point where 'diffusion' becomes obsolete as a concept.