“Define the Bostromian superintelligence gap as the time between AGI and an AI which, if given independent control of resources like labs and factories, could accelerate technology by a subjective century in one year (eg if invented in 2030, could produce a level of technology that feels typical of 2130 by 2031). I think there's a 25% chance the Bostromian superintelligence gap will be less than 2 years, a 50% chance it will be less than 10 years, and a 75% chance it will be less than 50 years.”

Conditional forecast measured from whenever AGI (Alexander's definition: AI able to do 90% of knowledge work jobs) arrives; his companion modal scenario in the same post puts AGI at 2031 and Bostromian superintelligence in the late 2030s.