“Some big macroeconomic indicator (eg GDP, unemployment, inflation) shows a visible bump or dip as a direct effect of AI ("direct effect" excludes eg an AI-designed pandemic killing people): 15%.”

Part of Alexander's five-year prediction set, which he specifies resolves as of 1/1/2028; he framed it alongside his 'Solow's Law' expectation that AI would not show up as a visible break from trend in the big macroeconomic statistics.