“AI will increase US productivity by only 0.5% and GDP growth by only 0.9% cumulatively over the next decade — a nontrivial but modest effect, and far less than the revolutionary changes some are predicting.”
Institute Professor of Economics, MIT (2024 Nobel laureate in economic sciences)
Said Jun 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2034Goldman Sachs Research, Top of Mind: 'Gen AI: Too Much Spend, Too Little Benefit?', June 2024 (interview; figures from Acemoglu's paper 'The Simple Macroeconomics of AI')
Resolves on measured US total factor productivity and GDP attributable to generative AI over 2024-2034, against Goldman's own far larger ~9% productivity / ~6% GDP estimates.